This one-day interactive workshop will bring together professionals from government, NGOs, and the corporate sector to foster discussions on current practices, challenges, and opportunities at the intersection of strategic intelligence analysis and foresight based on scenarios.
Together we will shape a vision of strategic intelligence foresight that informs policy and strategy.
University of Southern California Capital Campus
1771 N Street NW, Washington, DC 20036
Participation
Sponsored by
CEO and Founder Mind-Alliance Systems
Editor, The McGraw-Hill Homeland Security Handbook. Member of NATO SAS-189 Anticipatory Intelligence for Strategic Decision Making
Instructor, The Ohio State University
Strategic foresight professional working with Leon Fuerth. Teaching at The Ohio State University. President of The University Group Partners
Former Chair, U.S.
National Intelligence Council
Former Chair, U.S. National Intelligence Council; Chair, Global TechnoPolitics Forum; Professor of the Practice of International Relations and Spatial Sciences, University of Southern California
Information that is timely, relevant, and directly supports decision-making and responses to both immediate and long-term threats or opportunities.
A governance framework that integrates foresight into policy-making to proactively address long-term challenges, emerging threats, and complex uncertainties.
A planning technique that starts with defining a desired future outcome and works backward to determine the steps necessary to achieve that outcome. Unlike forecasting, which projects forward based on current trends, backcasting envisions a target state and explores ways to reach it.
A tool used in backcasting to create a step-by-step timeline of milestones that need to be achieved to reach a desired future outcome. This timeline helps organizations visualize the path from the present to their future goals, ensuring a clear action plan.
Internal or external forces that shape trends and influence the development of an organization, industry, or society. Change drivers can include technological advancements, regulatory shifts, cultural changes, and new market demands.
Situations characterized by numerous interconnected factors, high uncertainty, and rapid changes make strategic planning and decision-making challenging.
Breaks or deviations from established trends that represent significant shifts in the status quo. Discontinuities can be unexpected accelerations, slowdowns, or complete reversals of trends, often acting as catalysts for major changes.
Underlying factors that influence the direction of future developments, including economic, social, political, technological, and environmental trends.
Factors that push a system toward change by creating new possibilities or opportunities. Emergence drivers are often associated with new technologies, shifts in societal values, or unexpected innovations that open up new pathways for development.
The identification and examination of new issues or phenomena that have the potential to shape future developments. Emerging issues are often at an early stage but can signal important shifts that organizations need to monitor.
New or evolving risks could pose significant challenges to national security, stability, or other critical areas of concern, requiring proactive attention.
Factors that contribute to the disorder and inefficiency within a system, driving change by creating pressure on existing structures. Entropy drivers are often related to outdated processes, unsustainable practices, or accumulated inefficiencies that push a system toward transformation.
Statistical models, data analysis, and expert judgment are used to make probabilistic predictions about specific future events or trends within a defined timeframe.
A systematic approach to anticipating and planning for the future. Foresight involves exploring possible, probable, and preferable futures by analyzing trends, drivers, and uncertainties. It allows organizations to proactively shape their future rather than merely reacting to changes.
The practice of exploring and analyzing multiple possible futures to understand uncertainties and prepare for emerging trends and potential disruptions.
The systematic examination of potential threats, emerging issues, and opportunities that could impact an organization in the future. Horizon scanning aims to identify weak signals and early signs of significant changes that could affect future developments.
A research initiative sponsored by the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) that utilizes forecasting tournaments and collective intelligence to enhance the accuracy of predictions about geopolitical events.
Internal motivations, rewards, or pressures within an organization influence behaviors, shaping priorities, resource allocation, and the adoption of new methodologies.
Collecting, analyzing, and interpreting information to understand current and future threats and opportunities, supporting decision-making in national security, corporate strategy, or other strategic contexts.
A conceptual model originally developed in psychology to help individuals better understand their relationships with others. In foresight, the Johari Window is adapted to map knowledge about the future, categorizing what is known and unknown. It includes four quadrants: Known-Knowns, Known-Unknowns, Unknown-Knowns, and Unknown-Unknowns.
A concept describing the vast array of low-probability, high-impact events that, while individually unlikely, collectively represent significant sources of risk or opportunity.
Profound understandings or perspectives derived from foresight activities that anticipate developments over extended time horizons, informing strategic planning beyond immediate concerns.
Long-term, large-scale change developments that affect economies, societies, and cultures at a global level. Megatrends often unfold over decades and have a widespread impact. Examples include climate change, urbanization, digital transformation, and aging populations.
A strategic tool used to identify and analyze external factors that could impact an organization. PESTLE stands for Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legal, and Environmental. This framework helps in categorizing change drivers and understanding the broader external context of future planning.
A forward-looking strategy that involves initiating actions based on insights into potential future developments, enabling organizations to navigate uncertainties effectively rather than merely reacting to events as they occur.
Predictions that assign probabilities to the likelihood of specific events or outcomes are commonly used in forecasting to assess future risks and inform decision-making.
Narrative descriptions of possible future states are used in foresight to explore broad developments, risks, and opportunities, emphasizing qualitative insights over precise probabilities.
Evaluations based on numerical and statistical data provide precise predictions about specific future events, trends, or variables.
Projections that mimic traditional forecasts but are heavily based on current intelligence, potentially limiting their ability to account for future uncertainties and low-probability events.
The period that follows a major societal disruption, during which new structures, organizations, and processes are formed. This phase is characterized by the rebuilding of order and the emergence of new systems to replace those that have become obsolete.
The capacity of an organization or system to adapt, recover, maintain, or quickly restore functionality amid unexpected disruptions, adverse conditions, or complex challenges.
A model used to describe the typical lifecycle of trends, where growth starts slowly, accelerates, and then eventually plateaus. Understanding where a trend is on its S-curve helps in predicting its future trajectory and potential impact.
The process of modifying scenarios based on new information or changing conditions. Scenario adaptation ensures that scenario planning remains relevant and up-to-date as the external environment evolves.
A visual representation used in scenario planning to organize and develop different scenarios based on key uncertainties or change drivers. It helps to systematically explore the implications of different combinations of factors.
Detailed descriptions of how specific scenarios might unfold. These narratives help in visualizing different future states, making abstract scenarios more tangible and relatable. Scenario narratives are often crafted using storytelling techniques to engage stakeholders.
A strategic tool used to develop and analyze different plausible future scenarios to prepare an organization for potential changes. Scenario planning challenges assumptions and helps in assessing the impact of various uncertainties on strategic decisions. It emphasizes creating narratives of different futures based on key uncertainties and change drivers.
The process of evaluating existing strategies or plans against multiple future scenarios to assess their resilience and adaptability. This technique helps identify potential weaknesses or risks in a strategy when faced with different possible futures.
A creative foresight method that uses speculative storytelling to envision future technologies, societal changes, and their implications. It helps organizations think beyond current limitations and explore transformative possibilities.
The process of identifying and understanding the roles and interests of different stakeholders in relation to future scenarios. This analysis helps to ensure that all relevant perspectives are considered in scenario development.
A structured process of using foresight tools to help organizations understand and navigate long-term uncertainties. It includes the analysis of trends, scenarios, and emerging changes to improve decision-making. Strategic foresight is often applied in both business and public policy to guide strategy formulation.
A method used to assess the potential future impact of current trends by evaluating how they might develop and interact over time. Trend Impact Analysis helps organizations anticipate changes and adapt strategies accordingly.
Techniques used to imagine radically different futures that go beyond the probable or plausible, often incorporating creative approaches like science fiction prototyping. Visionary methods are particularly useful for exploring unknown-unknowns.
An acronym that stands for Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, and Ambiguous. It describes the challenging nature of the environment in which strategic foresight is conducted. Scenario planning and foresight tools help organizations navigate VUCA conditions by preparing for multiple possible futures.
Early and ambiguous indicators of potential future changes, often characterized by their nascent nature and low visibility. Weak signals, if correctly interpreted, provide early warnings of possible future disruptions or opportunities.
Low-probability, high-impact events that could significantly alter the future trajectory of trends or scenarios. Examples include natural disasters, financial crises, or revolutionary technological breakthroughs. Wild cards are crucial in scenario planning to help organizations prepare for unexpected disruptions.
A German term meaning "spirit of the age" or the prevailing cultural, intellectual, or social mood of a particular time period. In foresight, understanding the zeitgeist is crucial to recognizing the driving values and attitudes that shape societal behavior and future trends.
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